2018 Oscar Predictions, Part 4: Acting

Oy. We’re at the actors now, which is my most hated category this year. Why? Because I disagree with the seemingly locked frontrunners in almost all of these categories. Ugh. Wake me when it’s over.

BEST ACTOR

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  • Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
  • Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Gary Oldman is going to win, and this is the one I’m most okay with, because I did think he was amazing in Darkest Hour. I don’t even know what else to say about it though, because he’s won all four major precursors- Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA. It’s a done deal for the veteran character actor.

Winner: Gary Oldman

BEST ACTRESS

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  • Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep, The Post

I can’t predict anyone other than McDormand. I HATED that movie so much and I can’t tell you how how much it bothers me that it’s going to win all these awards on Oscar night, but like Oldman and the two other frontrunners, she won every single precursor award, so there’s no justification for choosing anyone else. By the way, people don’t lose the Oscar if they win all four of those awards- it’s never happened. I suppose there’s a first time for everything and maybe Saoirse Ronan can take it if they want to give Lady Bird something, but I don’t see it happening. 

Winner: Frances McDormand

Alternate: Saoirse Ronan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

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  • Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My mood darkens more and more as I go down this list. Two nominations here for Billboards is more of an indication how much the actors loved that awful movie and I can’t explain it. Rockwell didn’t lose a single precursor, so I guess he’s got it (it should belong to Willem Dafoe).

Winner: Sam Rockwell

Alternate: Willem Dafoe

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

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  • Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
  • Allison Janney, I, Tonya
  • Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
  • Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Now this one gives me a little bit of a pause, but not a whole lot, since again, Janney won every single precursor (this is the first time that’s ever happened with the same four actors, oddly enough). But….I, Tonya wasn’t that loved by the Academy so there’s a slim chance they could give it to someone who was in a Best Picture nominee, like Laurie Metcalf or even Lesley Manville. Do they want to give Lady Bird any awards at all? This could be the place to go to honor it. I actually did like Allison Janney in I, Tonya (although her part was so much smaller and more one note than Metcalf’s), so I’m slightly less irked about this particular win.

Winner: Allison Janney

Alternate: Laurie Metcalf

Dark Horse: Lesley Manville

2018 Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Writing, Editing, & Other Feature Films

Okay, onto the screenplays and the separate feature film categories. Feeling relatively good about my picks here, since there seem to be clear frontrunners in most of them.

BEST FILM EDITING

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  • Baby Driver
  • Dunkirk
  • I, Tonya
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Feeling good about picking Dunkirk for this, since it won the ACE Eddie Award, which is the most predictive guild. Baby Driver actually won the BAFTA though, so that could be a spoiler, but non-Best Picture nominees don’t usually win this category, so it would be a risk to choose that.

Winner: Dunkirk

Alternate: Baby Driver

BEST DOCUMENTARY

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  • Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
  • Faces Places
  • Icarus
  • Last Men in Aleppo
  • Strong Island

After the presumed frontrunner Jane was snubbed for even a nomination, most people thought that honorary winner Agnes Varda would win this for Faces Places, but I think it’s going to go to Last Men in Aleppo. The Syrian documentary is similar to last year’s doc short winner The White Helmets, and the Syrians who made the film have been banned from coming to the ceremony thanks to our shitheel in chief’s bullshit muslim ban. The Syrian government refuses to expedite their VISA process to let them come and the Academy put out a statement in solidarity with the filmmakers, so I have to believe their movie is winning this now.

Winner: Last Men in Aleppo

Alternate: Faces Places

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

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  • A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
  • The Insult (Lebanon)
  • Loveless (Russia)
  • On Body and Soul (Hungary)
  • The Square (Sweden)

The big frontrunner here seems to be A Fantastic Woman, which stars transgender actress Daniela Vega, who’s gotten a lot of acclaim for the film. Second place would likely be Sweden’s The Square, but I think A Fantastic Woman has it.

Winner: A Fantastic Woman

Alternate: The Square

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

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  • The Boss Baby
  • The Breadwinner
  • Coco
  • Ferdinand
  • Loving Vincent

This one’s Coco, no alternate needed. Eventually the Pixar or Disney hit of the year will lose this award to something (anything) else, but I can’t complain about it since Coco’s a good movie.

Winner: Coco

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

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  • Call Me By Your Name
  • The Disaster Artist
  • Logan
  • Molly’s Game
  • Mudbound

There’s really no need for an alternate in this category either, since Call My By Your Name won the WGA, Scripter and BAFTA precursors for this award. 

Winner: Call Me By Your Name

Alternate: Mudbound (if it’s anything else, but it won’t be)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

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  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Now this is one of the most interesting categories of the night. I’m going with Get Out, which won the WGA and Critics Choice, but that’s because I’m predicting the movie to win both this and Picture. It could very well go home empty-handed. Three Billboards is pretty beloved and won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and was ineligible for the WGA, so the truth is we don’t know if it would have beaten Get Out there. This is a 50/50 call. And if Billboards were to win this, that signals a lot more love for it than I’m betting on, which means it’s still a real threat for Best Picture.

Winner: Get Out

Alternate: Three Billboards

Dark Horse: Lady Bird (still wondering if this movie will go home empty-handed too)

Ralph and Vanellope Discover the Internet in 'Wreck-it Ralph 2' Teaser

So, both the Pixar and Disney films of 2018 are going to be sequels to past hits, and oddly enough, I'm looking forward to each of them. The Incredibles more so, but I did enjoy Wreck-it Ralph (I will never get over it losing the Oscar to Brave, which was not a good movie), and at the time I thought it was the kind of thing that lended itself well to a sequel. I became less interested in seeing one after Zootopia came out, which is from the same team, and lends itself to sequels even more and with far more interesting potential, but I guess this one was already in the works. I love the idea of them going into the internet though. I'm in.

2018 Oscar Predictions, Part 2: Music, Makeup, Costumes, Sets

Now we’re on to the production design, makeup, costumes, etc. These are always fun, but mostly because they fool me into thinking I’m an expert in each category, when that’s probably not how the Academy even votes for them. I don’t think they critique things the way I would if I were an actual voter.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

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  • Beauty and the Beast
  • Darkest Hour
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Shape of Water
  • Victoria & Abdul

Okay, so I think this is Phantom Thread, which is about fashion design, so how could it lose, right? Plus it was nominated for Best Picture and it’s the only category where it could really win, so I would think they’d want to give it something. It also won the BAFTA. On the other hand, there was an upset at the Costume Designers Guild last week, where it lost to The Shape of Water. Hmm. I’ll stick with it anyway.

Winner: Phantom Thread

Alternate: The Shape of Water

Dark Horse: Beauty and the Beast (I thought these costumes were garish but sometimes movies win this category for exactly that reason- see Alice in Wonderland).

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

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  • Beauty and the Beast
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water

I think that Blade Runner is the one that deserves to win this, but The Shape of Water won the guild award for it, and also the BAFTA, so it looks like it has it in the bag.

Winner: The Shape of Water

Alternate: Blade Runner 2049

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

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  • Darkest Hour
  • Victoria & Abdul
  • Wonder

This very likely goes to the BAFTA and guild winner Darkest Hour, although I wouldn’t necessarily rule out Wonder. Still, best to stick with the BP nominee here.

Winner: Darkest Hour

Alternate: Wonder

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

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  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Mudbound
  • The Shape of Water

This is a closer race I think, even though it shouldn’t be and legendary cinematographer Roger Deakins ought to finally win his Oscar for Blade Runner after a long, stellar career of incredible work (of which this is probably his finest). He also won the ASC (the guild) and the BAFTA, so it’s looking good for him. But there’s a chance for The Shape of Water and also Mudbound, which made history in having Rachel Morrison as the first woman ever nominated for cinematography.

Winner: Blade Runner 2049

Alternate: The Shape of Water

Dark Horse: Mudbound

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

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  • Dunkirk
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Shape of Water seems to be the consensus favorite here, after winning the BAFTA and Critics Choice awards. I don’t think it’s a particularly close race for this one.

Winner: The Shape of Water

Alternate: Phantom Thread

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

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  • “Mighty River,” Mudbound
  • “Mystery of Love,” Call Me By Your Name
  • “Remember Me,” Coco 
  • “Stand Up for Something,” Marshall
  • “This is Me,” The Greatest Showman

I think this will go to Coco, although I suppose there’s a chance for Mary J. Blige’s song from Mudbound or the song from the sleeper hit The Greatest Showman. But I think Coco is the safest bet. It's the one that made everybody cry, right?

Winner: “Remember Me”

Alternate: “Mighty River”

Dark Horse: “This is Me”

2018 Oscar Predictions, Part 1: Shorts, Effects & Sound

Time for my Oscar predictions! This year is particularly wide open in the big categories, so I’m glad to start with the techs, as usual. I have a feeling I’m not going to do too well this year overall, because I already know I’m going to predict an upset for Best Picture, but maybe I’ll do better in these smaller categories.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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  • Edith + Eddie
  • Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
  • Heroin(e)
  • Knife Skills
  • Traffic Stop

We start with the shorts, and as always, I have no way of seeing these, so I have to go by subject matter and reviews from the few people who have. I know that’s not very reassuring, but from what I’ve read, Heaven is a Traffic Jam seems to be the favorite, although Heroine, which is about opioids, apparently has its fans too.

Winner: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Alternate: Heroin(e)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

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  • DeKalb Elementary
  • The Eleven O’Clock
  • My Nephew Emmett
  • The Silent Child
  • Watu Wote/All of Us

I think this one will go to Dekalb Elementary, which is about a school shooting. 

Winner: DeKalb Elementary

Alternate: The Eleven O’Clock

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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  • Dear Basketball
  • Garden Party
  • Lou
  • Negative Space
  • Revolting Rhymes

So, Kobe Bryant has a short nominated here, so he’s a possibility, although I hear the film isn’t even very good. And I question whether they’d want to honor him in light of the #MeToo movement. So I’m going with the Pixar mainstay on this one.

Winner: Lou

Alternate: Dear Basketball

BEST SOUND MIXING

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  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Eh. I think I’m going with Dunkirk for both the sound categories- they usually pick the war movie or the musical for this. That gives Baby Driver an outside shot actually, but I’ll stick with Dunkirk.

Winner: Dunkirk

Alternate: Baby Driver

BEST SOUND EDITING

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  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Again, sticking with Dunkirk, but Baby Driver would not be a crazy prediction.

Winner: Dunkirk

Alternate: Baby Driver

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

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  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  • Kong: Skull Island
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • War for the Planet of the Apes

I’m shaky on this one a little bit. In the precursors, Apes won the VFX Guild award, but Blade Runner won the BAFTA. My instinct would say Apes due to the “visual” part of what we’re awarding here, but I do think there’s a chance for Blade Runner

Winner: War for the Planet of the Apes

Alternate: Blade Runner 2049

 

The Parr Family is Back in 'The Incredibles 2'

YES!! Now this is a sequel I'm excited about! 2004's The Incredibles was one of my favorite movies of the decade, and it still holds up insanely well. With writer-director Brad Bird back for this sequel, it looks just as good, even if I'm a little puzzled as to why they seem to be picking up right where they left off. I really thought they'd age the characters if it ever came back for sequels- think about how great it would be to change up the family dynamic and have Violet and Dash as teenagers, with Jack-Jack as the little kid (then the problem of recasting Dash's voice actor wouldn't have happened). But this one looks like it's all about Helen going back to work as Elastigirl, while Bob takes care of the kids, which is a good idea too. Hopefully they can do a time jump if there's a third one.

More Super Bowl Teasers for 'Infinity War,' 'Jurassic World 2,' 'Red Sparrow'

During yesterday's game (yay Eagles!) there were a boatload of teasers and glimpses at the would be blockbusters coming out this year. Here's a recap of the most buzzed about ones:

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (May 4)

Everyone's really excited about this, which brings even more characters into the mega-universe, like the Guardians, Spider-Man, Black Panther and Doctor Strange, but I pretty much hated the last Avengers movie, so I'm meh on it. What I most noticed about this was just about everyone got a new hairstyle since the last one.

 

JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM (June 22)

Jurassic World was one of the loudest, dumbest movies I'd seen in a good decade or so, and the sequel looks to be following in that one's tone for the most part. Who thought it was a good idea to bring those stupid hamster balls back?

 

RED SPARROW (March 2)

I haven't actually posted anything for this movie yet, so I figured I'd throw this one in here. It's coming out next month, and it looks pretty iffy. Most of my skepticism comes from the fact that it's from the hack Hunger Games director Francis Lawrence, but who knows. Also not too sure about JLaw's Russian accent. Hasn't this been done a million times already? Wasn't this similar to the Angelina Jolie movie Salt? Actually, it looks exactly like the begged for Black Widow movie fans wanted, if Marvel had ever agreed to let a Black Widow movie happen. I guess we'll see if anyone's into this.