Okay, it’s time to do the Oscar picks. I always start with the techs of course, and with some of my biggest blind spots, the shorts (which I still believe should be moved to another ceremony entirely). But here we go.
VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Visual effects is one of the big locks of the night, so we start with an easy one. Avatar takes this in its sleep, much to James Cameron’s chagrin (because the movie is not the zeitgeist phenom the first one was, despite its amazing box office success, and is not the big Oscar favorite in top line categories like the first one was). But, do I really need to explain why it wins here? Didn’t think so.
Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Alternate: Top Gun: Maverick
SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
This is basically the same list of nominees as VFX except that Elvis is here. I personally think Top Gun has got to win some stuff on Oscar night, so I think this is one of them. Sound usually goes to an action movie or a musical, which is why Elvis has a shot. But Top Gun won the guild award over All Quiet, so there you go.
Winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate: Elvis
Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA’s overwhelming love of this film makes it a dark horse in multiple tech categories)
ANIMATED SHORT
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake, and I Think I Believe It
Ughh, I hate the shorts and I hate predicting them. No offense of course to the no doubt wonderful work by these filmmakers but they deserve their own separate ceremony where the people watching all know and have seen what’s been nominated. And I don’t have to take a blind guess as to what wins. As it is, the frontrunner seems to be The Boy, The Mole, the Fox and the Horse (because it won the BAFTA), so let’s go with that.
Winner: The Boy, The Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Alternate: My Year of Dicks (why not?)
Dark Horse: Ice Merchants
LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
From what I understand, of this crop the one that feels the most urgent and timely is The Red Suitcase, so I’m going to choose that one. And don’t forget, for these categories the only people who can vote are those who’ve actually seen them all, which theoretically should matter for its quality.
Winner: The Red Suitcase
Alternate: An Irish Goodbye
Dark Horse: Le Pupille
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Finally, I think doc short is going to The Elephant Whisperers, because the subject matter is about rangers who are nursing young, orphaned elephants back to health in India who have been lost due to migration caused from climate change. Uh-huh. Who’s going to possibly vote against that? That reminds me of The Octopus Teacher’s win in documentary a couple years ago.
Winner: The Elephant Whisperers
Alternate: Haulout (this is also a climate change short that uses camera trickery to fool the viewers about what they’re watching- I could see this one happening too)
